Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs points to a high of 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer continental air and partial clearing that boosts daytime insolation. Current surface analyses show building high pressure with light southerly flow and dew points supporting efficient heating, while ensemble spreads remain modest around these values. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 27°C (36%) and 28°C (25%), reflecting traders' weighting of the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance over longer-range seasonal averages. Key upcoming catalysts include the next ECMWF and GFS updates plus any revised IMGW national forecasts, which could shift probabilities if steering patterns or cloud cover trends change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
27°C 37%
28°C 36%
26°C 14%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
9%
26°C
14%
27°C
37%
28°C
25%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
2%
27°C 37%
28°C 36%
26°C 14%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
9%
26°C
$15 Vol.
14%
27°C
$562 Vol.
37%
28°C
$48 Vol.
25%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs points to a high of 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer continental air and partial clearing that boosts daytime insolation. Current surface analyses show building high pressure with light southerly flow and dew points supporting efficient heating, while ensemble spreads remain modest around these values. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 27°C (36%) and 28°C (25%), reflecting traders' weighting of the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance over longer-range seasonal averages. Key upcoming catalysts include the next ECMWF and GFS updates plus any revised IMGW national forecasts, which could shift probabilities if steering patterns or cloud cover trends change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$625End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs points to a high of 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer continental air and partial clearing that boosts daytime insolation. Current surface analyses show building high pressure with light southerly flow and dew points supporting efficient heating, while ensemble spreads remain modest around these values. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 27°C (36%) and 28°C (25%), reflecting traders' weighting of the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance over longer-range seasonal averages. Key upcoming catalysts include the next ECMWF and GFS updates plus any revised IMGW national forecasts, which could shift probabilities if steering patterns or cloud cover trends change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$625End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs points to a high of 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer continental air and partial clearing that boosts daytime insolation. Current surface analyses show building high pressure with light southerly flow and dew points supporting efficient heating, while ensemble spreads remain modest around these values. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 27°C (36%) and 28°C (25%), reflecting traders' weighting of the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance over longer-range seasonal averages. Key upcoming catalysts include the next ECMWF and GFS updates plus any revised IMGW national forecasts, which could shift probabilities if steering patterns or cloud cover trends change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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