**Democratic incumbents in Nevada’s three southern districts (1, 3, and 4) remain favored to hold their seats heading into the November 2026 general election, while the open northern Republican seat (District 2) is expected to stay in GOP hands.** This produces the market’s clear preference for Democrats winning exactly three House seats. District 3, held by Susie Lee, is the most competitive of the Democratic seats and has drawn the heaviest attention from both parties after June primaries narrowed the field. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the three Democratic districts as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting modest structural advantages and fundraising edges for the incumbents. National midterm dynamics, including the generic congressional ballot and historical patterns of the president’s party facing headwinds, reinforce expectations that the current 3–1 split will hold. A fourth Democratic seat would require flipping the Republican-leaning District 2, an outcome traders view as unlikely given the district’s partisan lean. Conversely, losing one of the three Democratic seats remains possible but is priced lower, consistent with the seats’ current ratings and limited recent polling volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
3 58%
4 21%
2 18%
1 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
0
3%
1
6%
2
18%
3
58%
4
21%
3 58%
4 21%
2 18%
1 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
0
$105 Vol.
3%
1
$105 Vol.
6%
2
$228 Vol.
18%
3
$812 Vol.
58%
4
$222 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic incumbents in Nevada’s three southern districts (1, 3, and 4) remain favored to hold their seats heading into the November 2026 general election, while the open northern Republican seat (District 2) is expected to stay in GOP hands.**
This produces the market’s clear preference for Democrats winning exactly three House seats. District 3, held by Susie Lee, is the most competitive of the Democratic seats and has drawn the heaviest attention from both parties after June primaries narrowed the field. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the three Democratic districts as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting modest structural advantages and fundraising edges for the incumbents.
National midterm dynamics, including the generic congressional ballot and historical patterns of the president’s party facing headwinds, reinforce expectations that the current 3–1 split will hold. A fourth Democratic seat would require flipping the Republican-leaning District 2, an outcome traders view as unlikely given the district’s partisan lean. Conversely, losing one of the three Democratic seats remains possible but is priced lower, consistent with the seats’ current ratings and limited recent polling volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Volume
$1,471End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic incumbents in Nevada’s three southern districts (1, 3, and 4) remain favored to hold their seats heading into the November 2026 general election, while the open northern Republican seat (District 2) is expected to stay in GOP hands.**
This produces the market’s clear preference for Democrats winning exactly three House seats. District 3, held by Susie Lee, is the most competitive of the Democratic seats and has drawn the heaviest attention from both parties after June primaries narrowed the field. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the three Democratic districts as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting modest structural advantages and fundraising edges for the incumbents.
National midterm dynamics, including the generic congressional ballot and historical patterns of the president’s party facing headwinds, reinforce expectations that the current 3–1 split will hold. A fourth Democratic seat would require flipping the Republican-leaning District 2, an outcome traders view as unlikely given the district’s partisan lean. Conversely, losing one of the three Democratic seats remains possible but is priced lower, consistent with the seats’ current ratings and limited recent polling volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,471End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Democratic incumbents in Nevada’s three southern districts (1, 3, and 4) remain favored to hold their seats heading into the November 2026 general election, while the open northern Republican seat (District 2) is expected to stay in GOP hands.** This produces the market’s clear preference for Democrats winning exactly three House seats. District 3, held by Susie Lee, is the most competitive of the Democratic seats and has drawn the heaviest attention from both parties after June primaries narrowed the field. Recent nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the three Democratic districts as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting modest structural advantages and fundraising edges for the incumbents. National midterm dynamics, including the generic congressional ballot and historical patterns of the president’s party facing headwinds, reinforce expectations that the current 3–1 split will hold. A fourth Democratic seat would require flipping the Republican-leaning District 2, an outcome traders view as unlikely given the district’s partisan lean. Conversely, losing one of the three Democratic seats remains possible but is priced lower, consistent with the seats’ current ratings and limited recent polling volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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