Indiana's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and receives unanimous Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured renomination in the May 5 primary against two challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox advanced from a low-turnout field. Baird's 2024 margin exceeded 29 points, and the district's consistent voting patterns since 2012 underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Limited Democratic fundraising and absence of competitive polling data further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, serious health event for the incumbent, or unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,465 交易量
93%
民主党
$2,143 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Indiana's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and receives unanimous Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured renomination in the May 5 primary against two challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox advanced from a low-turnout field. Baird's 2024 margin exceeded 29 points, and the district's consistent voting patterns since 2012 underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Limited Democratic fundraising and absence of competitive polling data further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, serious health event for the incumbent, or unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$4,608结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Indiana's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and receives unanimous Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured renomination in the May 5 primary against two challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox advanced from a low-turnout field. Baird's 2024 margin exceeded 29 points, and the district's consistent voting patterns since 2012 underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Limited Democratic fundraising and absence of competitive polling data further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, serious health event for the incumbent, or unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,608结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Indiana's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and receives unanimous Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured renomination in the May 5 primary against two challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox advanced from a low-turnout field. Baird's 2024 margin exceeded 29 points, and the district's consistent voting patterns since 2012 underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Limited Democratic fundraising and absence of competitive polling data further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, serious health event for the incumbent, or unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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