Republican Jim Baird secured the party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote, defeating challengers including state representative Craig Haggard. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Baird, who won reelection in 2024 with nearly 65% of the vote, holds the Trump endorsement and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in presidential and statewide contests. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces limited fundraising and structural headwinds in this west-central Indiana seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural and recent primary dynamics, though late developments such as a major scandal or national wave could still alter the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-04 House Election Winner
IN-04 House Election Winner
$12,564 Vol.
$12,564 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$12,564 Vol.
$12,564 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$9,248 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$3,316 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Jim Baird secured the party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote, defeating challengers including state representative Craig Haggard. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Baird, who won reelection in 2024 with nearly 65% of the vote, holds the Trump endorsement and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in presidential and statewide contests. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces limited fundraising and structural headwinds in this west-central Indiana seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural and recent primary dynamics, though late developments such as a major scandal or national wave could still alter the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$12,564End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Jim Baird secured the party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote, defeating challengers including state representative Craig Haggard. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Baird, who won reelection in 2024 with nearly 65% of the vote, holds the Trump endorsement and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in presidential and statewide contests. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces limited fundraising and structural headwinds in this west-central Indiana seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural and recent primary dynamics, though late developments such as a major scandal or national wave could still alter the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,564End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Jim Baird secured the party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote, defeating challengers including state representative Craig Haggard. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Baird, who won reelection in 2024 with nearly 65% of the vote, holds the Trump endorsement and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in presidential and statewide contests. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces limited fundraising and structural headwinds in this west-central Indiana seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural and recent primary dynamics, though late developments such as a major scandal or national wave could still alter the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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