Trader consensus prices a 76% market-implied probability against Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April, driven by the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 13 and the U.S. Navy's subsequent blockade of Iranian ports, which has halted most traffic while allowing limited non-Iranian transits. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 permitted only about 15 vessels daily—versus normal volumes exceeding 140—under Iran's conditional controls, including tolls, selective approvals excluding U.S. and Israeli ships, and alternative mine-risk routes. Escalating rhetoric, with Tehran warning of undisclosed weapons and Trump vowing to neutralize Iranian warships, underscores persistent geopolitical friction, pricing in slim odds of unconditional reopening before month-end amid Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Key catalysts include potential resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations or further military posturing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 76% market-implied probability against Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April, driven by the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 13 and the U.S. Navy's subsequent blockade of Iranian ports, which has halted most traffic while allowing limited non-Iranian transits. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 permitted only about 15 vessels daily—versus normal volumes exceeding 140—under Iran's conditional controls, including tolls, selective approvals excluding U.S. and Israeli ships, and alternative mine-risk routes. Escalating rhetoric, with Tehran warning of undisclosed weapons and Trump vowing to neutralize Iranian warships, underscores persistent geopolitical friction, pricing in slim odds of unconditional reopening before month-end amid Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Key catalysts include potential resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations or further military posturing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$3,140End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 76% market-implied probability against Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April, driven by the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 13 and the U.S. Navy's subsequent blockade of Iranian ports, which has halted most traffic while allowing limited non-Iranian transits. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 permitted only about 15 vessels daily—versus normal volumes exceeding 140—under Iran's conditional controls, including tolls, selective approvals excluding U.S. and Israeli ships, and alternative mine-risk routes. Escalating rhetoric, with Tehran warning of undisclosed weapons and Trump vowing to neutralize Iranian warships, underscores persistent geopolitical friction, pricing in slim odds of unconditional reopening before month-end amid Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Key catalysts include potential resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations or further military posturing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,140End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 76% market-implied probability against Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April, driven by the collapse of Islamabad peace talks on April 13 and the U.S. Navy's subsequent blockade of Iranian ports, which has halted most traffic while allowing limited non-Iranian transits. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 permitted only about 15 vessels daily—versus normal volumes exceeding 140—under Iran's conditional controls, including tolls, selective approvals excluding U.S. and Israeli ships, and alternative mine-risk routes. Escalating rhetoric, with Tehran warning of undisclosed weapons and Trump vowing to neutralize Iranian warships, underscores persistent geopolitical friction, pricing in slim odds of unconditional reopening before month-end amid Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Key catalysts include potential resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations or further military posturing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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