Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by Iran's retention of its highly enriched stockpile—estimated at 400-540 kg—despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities last June. Satellite analysis from two days ago confirms Iran likely transferred material to Isfahan pre-strikes, with portions buried in rubble, evading destruction and IAEA verification. Stalled indirect nuclear talks in February, Trump's ceasefire demands unmet, and reports of special forces considerations underscore logistical barriers like ground troop requirements and escalation risks in active hostilities, diminishing near-term prospects for seizure or diplomatic handover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
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May 31, 2026
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May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by Iran's retention of its highly enriched stockpile—estimated at 400-540 kg—despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities last June. Satellite analysis from two days ago confirms Iran likely transferred material to Isfahan pre-strikes, with portions buried in rubble, evading destruction and IAEA verification. Stalled indirect nuclear talks in February, Trump's ceasefire demands unmet, and reports of special forces considerations underscore logistical barriers like ground troop requirements and escalation risks in active hostilities, diminishing near-term prospects for seizure or diplomatic handover.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$5,729End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by Iran's retention of its highly enriched stockpile—estimated at 400-540 kg—despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities last June. Satellite analysis from two days ago confirms Iran likely transferred material to Isfahan pre-strikes, with portions buried in rubble, evading destruction and IAEA verification. Stalled indirect nuclear talks in February, Trump's ceasefire demands unmet, and reports of special forces considerations underscore logistical barriers like ground troop requirements and escalation risks in active hostilities, diminishing near-term prospects for seizure or diplomatic handover.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,729End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by Iran's retention of its highly enriched stockpile—estimated at 400-540 kg—despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities last June. Satellite analysis from two days ago confirms Iran likely transferred material to Isfahan pre-strikes, with portions buried in rubble, evading destruction and IAEA verification. Stalled indirect nuclear talks in February, Trump's ceasefire demands unmet, and reports of special forces considerations underscore logistical barriers like ground troop requirements and escalation risks in active hostilities, diminishing near-term prospects for seizure or diplomatic handover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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