U.S. national average gasoline prices surged above $4.30 per gallon by April 30, per AAA data, driven primarily by escalating conflict in Iran that disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel. This marked a 27-cent weekly increase and a near-30% rise since early April, amid supply fears from the war's onset in late February. Seasonal refinery maintenance concluded without major hitches, but rising summer driving season demand and limited U.S. refinery capacity amplified pressures. Traders focused on geopolitical risks, potential U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, with OPEC+ output decisions looming as key catalysts for May trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$446,357 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
↑ $5.00
No
↑ $4.75
No
↑ $4.50
No
↑ $4.25
Yes
↑ $4.15
Yes
↑ $4.05
Yes
↓ $3.95
No
↓ $3.85
No
↓ $3.75
No
↓ $3.50
No
↓ $3.25
No
↓ $3.00
No
$446,357 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$70,699 Vol.
No
↑ $4.75
$46,851 Vol.
No
↑ $4.50
$37,584 Vol.
No
↑ $4.25
$83,966 Vol.
Yes
↑ $4.15
$40,224 Vol.
Yes
↑ $4.05
$110,128 Vol.
Yes
↓ $3.95
$17,963 Vol.
No
↓ $3.85
$17,290 Vol.
No
↓ $3.75
$10,725 Vol.
No
↓ $3.50
$3,416 Vol.
No
↓ $3.25
$2,189 Vol.
No
↓ $3.00
$5,324 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. national average gasoline prices surged above $4.30 per gallon by April 30, per AAA data, driven primarily by escalating conflict in Iran that disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel. This marked a 27-cent weekly increase and a near-30% rise since early April, amid supply fears from the war's onset in late February. Seasonal refinery maintenance concluded without major hitches, but rising summer driving season demand and limited U.S. refinery capacity amplified pressures. Traders focused on geopolitical risks, potential U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, with OPEC+ output decisions looming as key catalysts for May trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$446,357End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. national average gasoline prices surged above $4.30 per gallon by April 30, per AAA data, driven primarily by escalating conflict in Iran that disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel. This marked a 27-cent weekly increase and a near-30% rise since early April, amid supply fears from the war's onset in late February. Seasonal refinery maintenance concluded without major hitches, but rising summer driving season demand and limited U.S. refinery capacity amplified pressures. Traders focused on geopolitical risks, potential U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, with OPEC+ output decisions looming as key catalysts for May trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$446,357End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
U.S. national average gasoline prices surged above $4.30 per gallon by April 30, per AAA data, driven primarily by escalating conflict in Iran that disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel. This marked a 27-cent weekly increase and a near-30% rise since early April, amid supply fears from the war's onset in late February. Seasonal refinery maintenance concluded without major hitches, but rising summer driving season demand and limited U.S. refinery capacity amplified pressures. Traders focused on geopolitical risks, potential U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, with OPEC+ output decisions looming as key catalysts for May trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions