Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the resulting transition uncertainties. Hardliners have publicly accused figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a coup to sideline rivals, including Mojtaba Khamenei, amid stalled truce talks and renewed US military pressure. IRGC factions have expanded influence over decision-making, bypassing traditional clerical processes and fueling factional accusations. These developments, combined with ongoing negotiations and external military actions, shape trader assessments of whether internal challenges will escalate into a verifiable coup attempt before the market's December 2026 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,111,982 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
11%
$2,111,982 Vol.
December 31
$70,756 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the resulting transition uncertainties. Hardliners have publicly accused figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a coup to sideline rivals, including Mojtaba Khamenei, amid stalled truce talks and renewed US military pressure. IRGC factions have expanded influence over decision-making, bypassing traditional clerical processes and fueling factional accusations. These developments, combined with ongoing negotiations and external military actions, shape trader assessments of whether internal challenges will escalate into a verifiable coup attempt before the market's December 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,111,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the resulting transition uncertainties. Hardliners have publicly accused figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a coup to sideline rivals, including Mojtaba Khamenei, amid stalled truce talks and renewed US military pressure. IRGC factions have expanded influence over decision-making, bypassing traditional clerical processes and fueling factional accusations. These developments, combined with ongoing negotiations and external military actions, shape trader assessments of whether internal challenges will escalate into a verifiable coup attempt before the market's December 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,111,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes, the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the resulting transition uncertainties. Hardliners have publicly accused figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a coup to sideline rivals, including Mojtaba Khamenei, amid stalled truce talks and renewed US military pressure. IRGC factions have expanded influence over decision-making, bypassing traditional clerical processes and fueling factional accusations. These developments, combined with ongoing negotiations and external military actions, shape trader assessments of whether internal challenges will escalate into a verifiable coup attempt before the market's December 2026 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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