Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying substantial stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since mid-2025, leaving the status of remaining material unverified amid ongoing diplomatic escalation, including the agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards violations. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create major technical and political hurdles to any confirmed nuclear test. Late recovery of buried material or a rapid underground effort at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines, though such moves would likely face intensified monitoring and pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$258,428 Vol.
$258,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$258,428 Vol.
$258,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying substantial stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since mid-2025, leaving the status of remaining material unverified amid ongoing diplomatic escalation, including the agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards violations. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create major technical and political hurdles to any confirmed nuclear test. Late recovery of buried material or a rapid underground effort at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines, though such moves would likely face intensified monitoring and pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$258,428End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying substantial stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since mid-2025, leaving the status of remaining material unverified amid ongoing diplomatic escalation, including the agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards violations. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create major technical and political hurdles to any confirmed nuclear test. Late recovery of buried material or a rapid underground effort at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines, though such moves would likely face intensified monitoring and pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$258,428End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying substantial stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since mid-2025, leaving the status of remaining material unverified amid ongoing diplomatic escalation, including the agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards violations. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create major technical and political hurdles to any confirmed nuclear test. Late recovery of buried material or a rapid underground effort at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines, though such moves would likely face intensified monitoring and pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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