A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced around early April 2026, holds amid escalating economic pressure from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, fully implemented as of April 14, which has halted Tehran's sea trade powering 90% of its economy. Diplomatic efforts intensify, with Pakistan proposing a second round of US-Iran talks, White House reports of productive negotiations, and rare direct Israel-Lebanon discussions in Washington on April 15 to curb Hezbollah clashes—a key Iranian proxy front. Iran threatens retaliation against US ships, while President Trump expresses optimism for a permanent deal addressing nuclear issues and the blockade; US forces stand ready to resume strikes if talks fail before the ceasefire expires. Ongoing Israel strikes on Iranian oil and petrochemical sites through mid-April underscore persistent military tensions defining trader assessments of resolution timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$42,281,845 Vol.
May 15, 2026
April 7
86%
April 15
86%
April 30
88%
May 15
91%
June 30
93%
December 31
98%
$42,281,845 Vol.
April 7
$15,240,144 Vol.
86%
April 15
$8,994,559 Vol.
86%
April 30
$3,885,989 Vol.
88%
May 15
$3,414,175 Vol.
91%
June 30
$2,863,669 Vol.
93%
December 31
$2,720,780 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced around early April 2026, holds amid escalating economic pressure from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, fully implemented as of April 14, which has halted Tehran's sea trade powering 90% of its economy. Diplomatic efforts intensify, with Pakistan proposing a second round of US-Iran talks, White House reports of productive negotiations, and rare direct Israel-Lebanon discussions in Washington on April 15 to curb Hezbollah clashes—a key Iranian proxy front. Iran threatens retaliation against US ships, while President Trump expresses optimism for a permanent deal addressing nuclear issues and the blockade; US forces stand ready to resume strikes if talks fail before the ceasefire expires. Ongoing Israel strikes on Iranian oil and petrochemical sites through mid-April underscore persistent military tensions defining trader assessments of resolution timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$42,281,845End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced around early April 2026, holds amid escalating economic pressure from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, fully implemented as of April 14, which has halted Tehran's sea trade powering 90% of its economy. Diplomatic efforts intensify, with Pakistan proposing a second round of US-Iran talks, White House reports of productive negotiations, and rare direct Israel-Lebanon discussions in Washington on April 15 to curb Hezbollah clashes—a key Iranian proxy front. Iran threatens retaliation against US ships, while President Trump expresses optimism for a permanent deal addressing nuclear issues and the blockade; US forces stand ready to resume strikes if talks fail before the ceasefire expires. Ongoing Israel strikes on Iranian oil and petrochemical sites through mid-April underscore persistent military tensions defining trader assessments of resolution timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$42,281,845End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced around early April 2026, holds amid escalating economic pressure from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, fully implemented as of April 14, which has halted Tehran's sea trade powering 90% of its economy. Diplomatic efforts intensify, with Pakistan proposing a second round of US-Iran talks, White House reports of productive negotiations, and rare direct Israel-Lebanon discussions in Washington on April 15 to curb Hezbollah clashes—a key Iranian proxy front. Iran threatens retaliation against US ships, while President Trump expresses optimism for a permanent deal addressing nuclear issues and the blockade; US forces stand ready to resume strikes if talks fail before the ceasefire expires. Ongoing Israel strikes on Iranian oil and petrochemical sites through mid-April underscore persistent military tensions defining trader assessments of resolution timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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