**Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in May 2026 by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie 55%-45% in a high-spending primary backed by a Trump endorsement, while Melissa Strange won the Democratic primary.** This established a general-election matchup in a district that Trump carried by roughly 20 points in 2024 and that rates Solid or Safe Republican across forecasters. Trader pricing on margin buckets and a low 8.5% on a Democratic win reflects the district’s consistent partisan lean, limited recent polling, and absence of major developments since the primaries. The spread across Republican margin contracts (heaviest in the mid-20s range) indicates consensus on a comfortable GOP hold but uncertainty over exact size, driven by Gallrein’s profile as a newer candidate and the district’s historical variability in down-ballot performance. A shift in the national environment, stronger Democratic turnout efforts, or late-cycle events could narrow the margin, while sustained Republican advantages in fundraising and voter registration would likely widen it. No significant new catalysts have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 35-40% 37%
Republican 45%+ 37%
Republican 5-15% 33%
Republican 30-35% 32.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
37%
Republican 40-45%
32%
Republican 35-40%
37%
Republican 30-35%
32%
Republican 25-30%
29%
Republican 20-25%
32%
Republican 15-20%
28%
Republican 5-15%
33%
Republican 0-5%
25%
Democrat Wins
10%
Republican 35-40% 37%
Republican 45%+ 37%
Republican 5-15% 33%
Republican 30-35% 32.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
$20 Vol.
37%
Republican 40-45%
$20 Vol.
32%
Republican 35-40%
$20 Vol.
37%
Republican 30-35%
$20 Vol.
32%
Republican 25-30%
$20 Vol.
29%
Republican 20-25%
$20 Vol.
32%
Republican 15-20%
$20 Vol.
28%
Republican 5-15%
$20 Vol.
33%
Republican 0-5%
$20 Vol.
25%
Democrat Wins
$34 Vol.
10%
The 2026 KY-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KY-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in May 2026 by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie 55%-45% in a high-spending primary backed by a Trump endorsement, while Melissa Strange won the Democratic primary.** This established a general-election matchup in a district that Trump carried by roughly 20 points in 2024 and that rates Solid or Safe Republican across forecasters. Trader pricing on margin buckets and a low 8.5% on a Democratic win reflects the district’s consistent partisan lean, limited recent polling, and absence of major developments since the primaries.
The spread across Republican margin contracts (heaviest in the mid-20s range) indicates consensus on a comfortable GOP hold but uncertainty over exact size, driven by Gallrein’s profile as a newer candidate and the district’s historical variability in down-ballot performance. A shift in the national environment, stronger Democratic turnout efforts, or late-cycle events could narrow the margin, while sustained Republican advantages in fundraising and voter registration would likely widen it. No significant new catalysts have emerged in the past month.
The 2026 KY-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KY-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KY-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Volume
$214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 KY-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KY-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in May 2026 by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie 55%-45% in a high-spending primary backed by a Trump endorsement, while Melissa Strange won the Democratic primary.** This established a general-election matchup in a district that Trump carried by roughly 20 points in 2024 and that rates Solid or Safe Republican across forecasters. Trader pricing on margin buckets and a low 8.5% on a Democratic win reflects the district’s consistent partisan lean, limited recent polling, and absence of major developments since the primaries.
The spread across Republican margin contracts (heaviest in the mid-20s range) indicates consensus on a comfortable GOP hold but uncertainty over exact size, driven by Gallrein’s profile as a newer candidate and the district’s historical variability in down-ballot performance. A shift in the national environment, stronger Democratic turnout efforts, or late-cycle events could narrow the margin, while sustained Republican advantages in fundraising and voter registration would likely widen it. No significant new catalysts have emerged in the past month.
The 2026 KY-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KY-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KY-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in May 2026 by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie 55%-45% in a high-spending primary backed by a Trump endorsement, while Melissa Strange won the Democratic primary.** This established a general-election matchup in a district that Trump carried by roughly 20 points in 2024 and that rates Solid or Safe Republican across forecasters. Trader pricing on margin buckets and a low 8.5% on a Democratic win reflects the district’s consistent partisan lean, limited recent polling, and absence of major developments since the primaries. The spread across Republican margin contracts (heaviest in the mid-20s range) indicates consensus on a comfortable GOP hold but uncertainty over exact size, driven by Gallrein’s profile as a newer candidate and the district’s historical variability in down-ballot performance. A shift in the national environment, stronger Democratic turnout efforts, or late-cycle events could narrow the margin, while sustained Republican advantages in fundraising and voter registration would likely widen it. No significant new catalysts have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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