Current short-range forecast models from sources like WeatherBug and regional analyses indicate a daily minimum temperature in Chengdu on September 2 near 21–22°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where seasonal cooling from the East Asian monsoon transition produces typical overnight lows in that range under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This consensus underpins the market's leading 21°C outcome at 44.5% implied probability, while the 30% on 17°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential model shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical baselines show early-September minima averaging 21–23°C, with limited recent variability supporting tighter clustering around these values ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 2?
17°C or below 89%
27°C or higher 89%
21°C 47%
22°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
17°C or below
89%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
26%
21°C
47%
22°C
26%
23°C
24%
24°C
24%
25°C
24%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
89%
17°C or below 89%
27°C or higher 89%
21°C 47%
22°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Vol.
89%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
47%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
24%
24°C
$0 Vol.
24%
25°C
$4 Vol.
24%
26°C
$5 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecast models from sources like WeatherBug and regional analyses indicate a daily minimum temperature in Chengdu on September 2 near 21–22°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where seasonal cooling from the East Asian monsoon transition produces typical overnight lows in that range under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This consensus underpins the market's leading 21°C outcome at 44.5% implied probability, while the 30% on 17°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential model shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical baselines show early-September minima averaging 21–23°C, with limited recent variability supporting tighter clustering around these values ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$19End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecast models from sources like WeatherBug and regional analyses indicate a daily minimum temperature in Chengdu on September 2 near 21–22°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where seasonal cooling from the East Asian monsoon transition produces typical overnight lows in that range under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This consensus underpins the market's leading 21°C outcome at 44.5% implied probability, while the 30% on 17°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential model shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical baselines show early-September minima averaging 21–23°C, with limited recent variability supporting tighter clustering around these values ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecast models from sources like WeatherBug and regional analyses indicate a daily minimum temperature in Chengdu on September 2 near 21–22°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where seasonal cooling from the East Asian monsoon transition produces typical overnight lows in that range under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This consensus underpins the market's leading 21°C outcome at 44.5% implied probability, while the 30% on 17°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential model shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical baselines show early-September minima averaging 21–23°C, with limited recent variability supporting tighter clustering around these values ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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