Latest National Weather Service guidance and regional model runs indicate a high near 70–74°F for San Francisco on September 2, driven by a weakening marine layer, partial afternoon clearing under southwest flow, and modest onshore advection that limits full inland heating. Historical climatology places the September 2 average high at approximately 70°F, providing a baseline traders weigh against forecast spread. Minor differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins, while persistent low stratus or earlier drizzle would favor the 68–69°F outcome. Updated model cycles and midday observations remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 2?
72-73°F 43%
70-71°F 38%
68-69°F 13%
66-67°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
38%
72-73°F
43%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 43%
70-71°F 38%
68-69°F 13%
66-67°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
63°F or below
$323 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$122 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$127 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$192 Vol.
13%
70-71°F
$144 Vol.
38%
72-73°F
$284 Vol.
43%
74-75°F
$135 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$171 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$182 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and regional model runs indicate a high near 70–74°F for San Francisco on September 2, driven by a weakening marine layer, partial afternoon clearing under southwest flow, and modest onshore advection that limits full inland heating. Historical climatology places the September 2 average high at approximately 70°F, providing a baseline traders weigh against forecast spread. Minor differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins, while persistent low stratus or earlier drizzle would favor the 68–69°F outcome. Updated model cycles and midday observations remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,690End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and regional model runs indicate a high near 70–74°F for San Francisco on September 2, driven by a weakening marine layer, partial afternoon clearing under southwest flow, and modest onshore advection that limits full inland heating. Historical climatology places the September 2 average high at approximately 70°F, providing a baseline traders weigh against forecast spread. Minor differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins, while persistent low stratus or earlier drizzle would favor the 68–69°F outcome. Updated model cycles and midday observations remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,690End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and regional model runs indicate a high near 70–74°F for San Francisco on September 2, driven by a weakening marine layer, partial afternoon clearing under southwest flow, and modest onshore advection that limits full inland heating. Historical climatology places the September 2 average high at approximately 70°F, providing a baseline traders weigh against forecast spread. Minor differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight contest between 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins, while persistent low stratus or earlier drizzle would favor the 68–69°F outcome. Updated model cycles and midday observations remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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