Forecast models for Chengdu indicate a minimum temperature near 21–23°C on September 1, consistent with the closely matched market odds around 19–23°C, as the region transitions from peak summer heat. The Sichuan Basin’s topography and high humidity moderate overnight cooling, while partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds expected that night limit radiative heat loss compared to clearer conditions. Recent heavy rain alerts across eastern Sichuan have raised the chance of lingering moisture or scattered showers that could suppress daytime heating and produce slightly cooler minima, though current guidance shows only light or no precipitation. Historical early-September lows average near 20–22°C, and any shift in cloud cover or frontal passage could differentiate outcomes between the leading probabilities. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.