Forecasts from multiple models indicate a nighttime low near 26°C in Guangzhou on September 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate easterly flow typical of late-September subtropical conditions. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 23.5°C while exceeding recent daily observations around 25–27°C. The near-even market split between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by variable rainfall timing, urban heat retention, and minor differences across ensemble runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours, particularly on nocturnal cooling rates under overcast skies, will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 23?
21°C or below 99%
31°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
99%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
40%
26°C
21%
27°C
40%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
98%
21°C or below 99%
31°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
21%
27°C
$0 Vol.
40%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from multiple models indicate a nighttime low near 26°C in Guangzhou on September 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate easterly flow typical of late-September subtropical conditions. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 23.5°C while exceeding recent daily observations around 25–27°C. The near-even market split between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by variable rainfall timing, urban heat retention, and minor differences across ensemble runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours, particularly on nocturnal cooling rates under overcast skies, will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from multiple models indicate a nighttime low near 26°C in Guangzhou on September 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate easterly flow typical of late-September subtropical conditions. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 23.5°C while exceeding recent daily observations around 25–27°C. The near-even market split between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by variable rainfall timing, urban heat retention, and minor differences across ensemble runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours, particularly on nocturnal cooling rates under overcast skies, will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from multiple models indicate a nighttime low near 26°C in Guangzhou on September 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate easterly flow typical of late-September subtropical conditions. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 23.5°C while exceeding recent daily observations around 25–27°C. The near-even market split between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by variable rainfall timing, urban heat retention, and minor differences across ensemble runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours, particularly on nocturnal cooling rates under overcast skies, will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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