**Forecast uncertainty around a cooling trend after an intense early-September heatwave is driving closely matched market odds, with traders split between a lingering warm overnight low (82°F+) and more typical marine-influenced cooling (63°F or below).** Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily minimum in the upper 60s to low 70s for downtown Los Angeles or LAX on September 10, consistent with historical averages near 64°F but elevated by recent conditions. A strong heatwave, fueled by moisture from Tropical Storm Marie and extreme daytime highs exceeding 100°F on September 9, has delayed typical nocturnal cooling. Onshore flow and the marine layer are expected to moderate temperatures overnight, yet model runs show divergence on the strength of this cooling and the timing of any low-cloud development. Coastal stations like LAX often run several degrees cooler than inland areas, adding geographic variability to the single-market resolution. With no major data releases until the next model cycle and resolution imminent, trader sentiment reflects the narrow but genuine range of plausible outcomes between persistent warmth and a return toward seasonal norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 10?
63°F or below 70%
82°F or higher 70%
74-75°F 49%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
63°F or below
70%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
12%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
33%
76-77°F
37%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
11%
82°F or higher
70%
63°F or below 70%
82°F or higher 70%
74-75°F 49%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Vol.
70%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
9%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
12%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$13 Vol.
17%
74-75°F
$59 Vol.
33%
76-77°F
$121 Vol.
37%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
13%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
11%
82°F or higher
$0 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around a cooling trend after an intense early-September heatwave is driving closely matched market odds, with traders split between a lingering warm overnight low (82°F+) and more typical marine-influenced cooling (63°F or below).**
Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily minimum in the upper 60s to low 70s for downtown Los Angeles or LAX on September 10, consistent with historical averages near 64°F but elevated by recent conditions. A strong heatwave, fueled by moisture from Tropical Storm Marie and extreme daytime highs exceeding 100°F on September 9, has delayed typical nocturnal cooling. Onshore flow and the marine layer are expected to moderate temperatures overnight, yet model runs show divergence on the strength of this cooling and the timing of any low-cloud development. Coastal stations like LAX often run several degrees cooler than inland areas, adding geographic variability to the single-market resolution. With no major data releases until the next model cycle and resolution imminent, trader sentiment reflects the narrow but genuine range of plausible outcomes between persistent warmth and a return toward seasonal norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$193End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around a cooling trend after an intense early-September heatwave is driving closely matched market odds, with traders split between a lingering warm overnight low (82°F+) and more typical marine-influenced cooling (63°F or below).**
Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily minimum in the upper 60s to low 70s for downtown Los Angeles or LAX on September 10, consistent with historical averages near 64°F but elevated by recent conditions. A strong heatwave, fueled by moisture from Tropical Storm Marie and extreme daytime highs exceeding 100°F on September 9, has delayed typical nocturnal cooling. Onshore flow and the marine layer are expected to moderate temperatures overnight, yet model runs show divergence on the strength of this cooling and the timing of any low-cloud development. Coastal stations like LAX often run several degrees cooler than inland areas, adding geographic variability to the single-market resolution. With no major data releases until the next model cycle and resolution imminent, trader sentiment reflects the narrow but genuine range of plausible outcomes between persistent warmth and a return toward seasonal norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$193End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty around a cooling trend after an intense early-September heatwave is driving closely matched market odds, with traders split between a lingering warm overnight low (82°F+) and more typical marine-influenced cooling (63°F or below).** Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily minimum in the upper 60s to low 70s for downtown Los Angeles or LAX on September 10, consistent with historical averages near 64°F but elevated by recent conditions. A strong heatwave, fueled by moisture from Tropical Storm Marie and extreme daytime highs exceeding 100°F on September 9, has delayed typical nocturnal cooling. Onshore flow and the marine layer are expected to moderate temperatures overnight, yet model runs show divergence on the strength of this cooling and the timing of any low-cloud development. Coastal stations like LAX often run several degrees cooler than inland areas, adding geographic variability to the single-market resolution. With no major data releases until the next model cycle and resolution imminent, trader sentiment reflects the narrow but genuine range of plausible outcomes between persistent warmth and a return toward seasonal norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions