Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon continues to shape overnight conditions in Manila, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27°C for the August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and short-range models show extensive cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26°C. High humidity levels near 85–93% further compress the diurnal range, while moderate to strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Slight divergences among ensemble members on exact cloud thickness and rainfall timing create the near-even probabilities between 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places typical lows around 26°C, providing a baseline that traders weigh against any late forecast shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 28?
26°C 46%
25°C 45%
27°C 45%
23°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
4%
22°C
14%
23°C
44%
24°C
44%
25°C
45%
26°C
46%
27°C
45%
28°C
43%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
11%
26°C 46%
25°C 45%
27°C 45%
23°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
$27 Vol.
4%
22°C
$27 Vol.
14%
23°C
$0 Vol.
44%
24°C
$0 Vol.
44%
25°C
$0 Vol.
45%
26°C
$0 Vol.
46%
27°C
$0 Vol.
45%
28°C
$0 Vol.
43%
29°C
$22 Vol.
5%
30°C
$27 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$27 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon continues to shape overnight conditions in Manila, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27°C for the August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and short-range models show extensive cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26°C. High humidity levels near 85–93% further compress the diurnal range, while moderate to strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Slight divergences among ensemble members on exact cloud thickness and rainfall timing create the near-even probabilities between 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places typical lows around 26°C, providing a baseline that traders weigh against any late forecast shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$129End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon continues to shape overnight conditions in Manila, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27°C for the August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and short-range models show extensive cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26°C. High humidity levels near 85–93% further compress the diurnal range, while moderate to strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Slight divergences among ensemble members on exact cloud thickness and rainfall timing create the near-even probabilities between 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places typical lows around 26°C, providing a baseline that traders weigh against any late forecast shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$129End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon continues to shape overnight conditions in Manila, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27°C for the August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and short-range models show extensive cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support minimum temperatures near 26°C. High humidity levels near 85–93% further compress the diurnal range, while moderate to strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Slight divergences among ensemble members on exact cloud thickness and rainfall timing create the near-even probabilities between 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places typical lows around 26°C, providing a baseline that traders weigh against any late forecast shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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