Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, with official PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicating minimum temperatures for August 26 likely near 26–27 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows at 24–26 °C, but persistent moisture and light southwesterly winds currently support slightly warmer minima while also introducing forecast spread from variable precipitation timing. Multiple global and regional models show close agreement on the daily range yet diverge on exact nocturnal cooling rates, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27 °C. PAGASA’s next regional update and fresh model runs within the next 24 hours will refine the lowest-temperature outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
25°C 50%
21°C or below 47%
31°C or higher 47%
23°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
47%
22°C
15%
23°C
46%
24°C
46%
25°C
50%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
46%
29°C
46%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
47%
25°C 50%
21°C or below 47%
31°C or higher 47%
23°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
47%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$0 Vol.
46%
24°C
$0 Vol.
46%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
46%
29°C
$0 Vol.
46%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, with official PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicating minimum temperatures for August 26 likely near 26–27 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows at 24–26 °C, but persistent moisture and light southwesterly winds currently support slightly warmer minima while also introducing forecast spread from variable precipitation timing. Multiple global and regional models show close agreement on the daily range yet diverge on exact nocturnal cooling rates, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27 °C. PAGASA’s next regional update and fresh model runs within the next 24 hours will refine the lowest-temperature outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, with official PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicating minimum temperatures for August 26 likely near 26–27 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows at 24–26 °C, but persistent moisture and light southwesterly winds currently support slightly warmer minima while also introducing forecast spread from variable precipitation timing. Multiple global and regional models show close agreement on the daily range yet diverge on exact nocturnal cooling rates, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27 °C. PAGASA’s next regional update and fresh model runs within the next 24 hours will refine the lowest-temperature outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, with official PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicating minimum temperatures for August 26 likely near 26–27 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows at 24–26 °C, but persistent moisture and light southwesterly winds currently support slightly warmer minima while also introducing forecast spread from variable precipitation timing. Multiple global and regional models show close agreement on the daily range yet diverge on exact nocturnal cooling rates, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25–27 °C. PAGASA’s next regional update and fresh model runs within the next 24 hours will refine the lowest-temperature outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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