Recent forecasts from multiple models project Mexico City overnight lows of 13–15°C on September 6 amid widespread cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season, which limits radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. These conditions align with historical September averages near 12°C while reducing the likelihood of sharp drops below 10°C. Trader positioning, with 17°C or higher leading at 46.5% implied probability, appears to embed residual uncertainty around forecast timing and any breaks in cloud cover that could allow slightly milder minima, whereas probabilities clustered at 13–16°C (26–28%) reflect the consensus central tendency and upcoming model updates from agencies monitoring regional moisture patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
7°C or below 59%
16°C 50%
15°C 28%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
59%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C
26%
13°C
25%
14°C
27%
15°C
28%
16°C
50%
17°C or higher
-
7°C or below 59%
16°C 50%
15°C 28%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
59%
8°C
$0 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$10 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C or higher
$6 Vol.
-
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Mexico City overnight lows of 13–15°C on September 6 amid widespread cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season, which limits radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. These conditions align with historical September averages near 12°C while reducing the likelihood of sharp drops below 10°C. Trader positioning, with 17°C or higher leading at 46.5% implied probability, appears to embed residual uncertainty around forecast timing and any breaks in cloud cover that could allow slightly milder minima, whereas probabilities clustered at 13–16°C (26–28%) reflect the consensus central tendency and upcoming model updates from agencies monitoring regional moisture patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Mexico City overnight lows of 13–15°C on September 6 amid widespread cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season, which limits radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. These conditions align with historical September averages near 12°C while reducing the likelihood of sharp drops below 10°C. Trader positioning, with 17°C or higher leading at 46.5% implied probability, appears to embed residual uncertainty around forecast timing and any breaks in cloud cover that could allow slightly milder minima, whereas probabilities clustered at 13–16°C (26–28%) reflect the consensus central tendency and upcoming model updates from agencies monitoring regional moisture patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models project Mexico City overnight lows of 13–15°C on September 6 amid widespread cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season, which limits radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. These conditions align with historical September averages near 12°C while reducing the likelihood of sharp drops below 10°C. Trader positioning, with 17°C or higher leading at 46.5% implied probability, appears to embed residual uncertainty around forecast timing and any breaks in cloud cover that could allow slightly milder minima, whereas probabilities clustered at 13–16°C (26–28%) reflect the consensus central tendency and upcoming model updates from agencies monitoring regional moisture patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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