Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on September 6, 2026, placing the daily low squarely in the 60-61°F market bin that now commands near-certain trader consensus. This outcome aligns with the typical early-September marine-layer regime, where onshore flow and coastal stratus moderate overnight cooling near the 56°F climatological normal. Model guidance and real-time METAR data showed limited diurnal spread under hazy conditions and moderate westerly winds, reducing the chance of colder readings at downtown or bay-side stations. A shift in resolution criteria to an alternate observing site or revised quality-control adjustment remains the primary realistic uncertainty, though historical practice favors the airport record for such contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 6?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 6?
60-61°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
54-55°F 1.0%
49°F or below <1%
$960 Vol.
$960 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
Yes
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
No
60-61°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
54-55°F 1.0%
49°F or below <1%
$960 Vol.
$960 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
49°F or below
$67 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$106 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$91 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$50 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$122 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$191 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$105 Vol.
Yes
62-63°F
$80 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$40 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$40 Vol.
No
68°F or higher
$69 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on September 6, 2026, placing the daily low squarely in the 60-61°F market bin that now commands near-certain trader consensus. This outcome aligns with the typical early-September marine-layer regime, where onshore flow and coastal stratus moderate overnight cooling near the 56°F climatological normal. Model guidance and real-time METAR data showed limited diurnal spread under hazy conditions and moderate westerly winds, reducing the chance of colder readings at downtown or bay-side stations. A shift in resolution criteria to an alternate observing site or revised quality-control adjustment remains the primary realistic uncertainty, though historical practice favors the airport record for such contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$960End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on September 6, 2026, placing the daily low squarely in the 60-61°F market bin that now commands near-certain trader consensus. This outcome aligns with the typical early-September marine-layer regime, where onshore flow and coastal stratus moderate overnight cooling near the 56°F climatological normal. Model guidance and real-time METAR data showed limited diurnal spread under hazy conditions and moderate westerly winds, reducing the chance of colder readings at downtown or bay-side stations. A shift in resolution criteria to an alternate observing site or revised quality-control adjustment remains the primary realistic uncertainty, though historical practice favors the airport record for such contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$960End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on September 6, 2026, placing the daily low squarely in the 60-61°F market bin that now commands near-certain trader consensus. This outcome aligns with the typical early-September marine-layer regime, where onshore flow and coastal stratus moderate overnight cooling near the 56°F climatological normal. Model guidance and real-time METAR data showed limited diurnal spread under hazy conditions and moderate westerly winds, reducing the chance of colder readings at downtown or bay-side stations. A shift in resolution criteria to an alternate observing site or revised quality-control adjustment remains the primary realistic uncertainty, though historical practice favors the airport record for such contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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