Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF runs place Milan’s minimum temperature on September 21 near 17°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering light northerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and moderate radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus shows overnight lows stabilizing around 16–18°C as dew points hover near 16°C and surface pressure remains elevated near 1022 hPa, limiting stronger advection of cooler air. Minor spread arises from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with some members allowing brief clearer periods that could dip a degree lower. The market’s near-even split between sub-10°C and 20°C+ bins, alongside clustered probabilities around 17°C, reflects traders weighting the narrow forecast range against typical late-September variability and the short lead time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 21?
10°C or below 99%
20°C or higher 97%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
99%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
22%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C or higher
97%
10°C or below 99%
20°C or higher 97%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF runs place Milan’s minimum temperature on September 21 near 17°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering light northerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and moderate radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus shows overnight lows stabilizing around 16–18°C as dew points hover near 16°C and surface pressure remains elevated near 1022 hPa, limiting stronger advection of cooler air. Minor spread arises from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with some members allowing brief clearer periods that could dip a degree lower. The market’s near-even split between sub-10°C and 20°C+ bins, alongside clustered probabilities around 17°C, reflects traders weighting the narrow forecast range against typical late-September variability and the short lead time to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF runs place Milan’s minimum temperature on September 21 near 17°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering light northerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and moderate radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus shows overnight lows stabilizing around 16–18°C as dew points hover near 16°C and surface pressure remains elevated near 1022 hPa, limiting stronger advection of cooler air. Minor spread arises from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with some members allowing brief clearer periods that could dip a degree lower. The market’s near-even split between sub-10°C and 20°C+ bins, alongside clustered probabilities around 17°C, reflects traders weighting the narrow forecast range against typical late-September variability and the short lead time to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF runs place Milan’s minimum temperature on September 21 near 17°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering light northerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and moderate radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus shows overnight lows stabilizing around 16–18°C as dew points hover near 16°C and surface pressure remains elevated near 1022 hPa, limiting stronger advection of cooler air. Minor spread arises from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with some members allowing brief clearer periods that could dip a degree lower. The market’s near-even split between sub-10°C and 20°C+ bins, alongside clustered probabilities around 17°C, reflects traders weighting the narrow forecast range against typical late-September variability and the short lead time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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