Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models place Milan's minimum temperature on September 23 in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent high pressure, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with the balanced 50% market-implied odds on the 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher extremes, reflecting trader recognition of typical model spread at this short lead time and the sensitivity of minimum temperatures to subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind. Historical September climatology for Milan shows average lows near 14–16°C, providing context for why intermediate outcomes such as 15°C or 17°C carry the next-highest probabilities around 20–22%. Updated runs from major centers expected in the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst that could narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 23?
11°C or below 100%
21°C or higher 100%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
11°C or below
100%
12°C
36%
13°C
38%
14°C
39%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
21%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C or higher
100%
11°C or below 100%
21°C or higher 100%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
12°C
$0 Vol.
36%
13°C
$0 Vol.
38%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
38%
20°C
$0 Vol.
38%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models place Milan's minimum temperature on September 23 in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent high pressure, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with the balanced 50% market-implied odds on the 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher extremes, reflecting trader recognition of typical model spread at this short lead time and the sensitivity of minimum temperatures to subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind. Historical September climatology for Milan shows average lows near 14–16°C, providing context for why intermediate outcomes such as 15°C or 17°C carry the next-highest probabilities around 20–22%. Updated runs from major centers expected in the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst that could narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models place Milan's minimum temperature on September 23 in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent high pressure, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with the balanced 50% market-implied odds on the 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher extremes, reflecting trader recognition of typical model spread at this short lead time and the sensitivity of minimum temperatures to subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind. Historical September climatology for Milan shows average lows near 14–16°C, providing context for why intermediate outcomes such as 15°C or 17°C carry the next-highest probabilities around 20–22%. Updated runs from major centers expected in the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst that could narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models place Milan's minimum temperature on September 23 in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent high pressure, light easterly flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with the balanced 50% market-implied odds on the 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher extremes, reflecting trader recognition of typical model spread at this short lead time and the sensitivity of minimum temperatures to subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind. Historical September climatology for Milan shows average lows near 14–16°C, providing context for why intermediate outcomes such as 15°C or 17°C carry the next-highest probabilities around 20–22%. Updated runs from major centers expected in the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalyst that could narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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