Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Qingdao on September 21, driven by partly cloudy to clearing conditions, moderate northerly winds shifting southerly, and typical Yellow Sea coastal moderation that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent model runs show consistency in daytime highs around 27–28°C but slight divergence in overnight lows (19–21°C range), reflecting uncertainty from variable humidity, wind patterns, and radiative cooling under clearing skies. This genuine variability in short-range predictions explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, as traders weigh potential for stronger cold advection versus stable late-summer patterns. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 21?
15°C or below 95%
25°C or higher 92%
16°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
15°C or below
95%
16°C
39%
17°C
31%
18°C
23%
19°C
21%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C or higher
92%
15°C or below 95%
25°C or higher 92%
16°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
31%
18°C
$17 Vol.
23%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Qingdao on September 21, driven by partly cloudy to clearing conditions, moderate northerly winds shifting southerly, and typical Yellow Sea coastal moderation that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent model runs show consistency in daytime highs around 27–28°C but slight divergence in overnight lows (19–21°C range), reflecting uncertainty from variable humidity, wind patterns, and radiative cooling under clearing skies. This genuine variability in short-range predictions explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, as traders weigh potential for stronger cold advection versus stable late-summer patterns. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$17End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Qingdao on September 21, driven by partly cloudy to clearing conditions, moderate northerly winds shifting southerly, and typical Yellow Sea coastal moderation that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent model runs show consistency in daytime highs around 27–28°C but slight divergence in overnight lows (19–21°C range), reflecting uncertainty from variable humidity, wind patterns, and radiative cooling under clearing skies. This genuine variability in short-range predictions explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, as traders weigh potential for stronger cold advection versus stable late-summer patterns. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Qingdao on September 21, driven by partly cloudy to clearing conditions, moderate northerly winds shifting southerly, and typical Yellow Sea coastal moderation that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent model runs show consistency in daytime highs around 27–28°C but slight divergence in overnight lows (19–21°C range), reflecting uncertainty from variable humidity, wind patterns, and radiative cooling under clearing skies. This genuine variability in short-range predictions explains the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, as traders weigh potential for stronger cold advection versus stable late-summer patterns. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions