Current forecast consensus from Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models indicates a minimum temperature near 22–23°C on September 22 under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and moderate humidity around 60–80%. This positioning stems from stable post-summer subtropical high influence with minimal frontal activity or typhoon impacts, allowing typical nocturnal radiative cooling without extreme drops. Recent observations show consistent overnight lows in the low 20s°C amid gradual seasonal transition, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs, where slight variations in cloud cover or wind could nudge the official minimum between 22–24°C, while probabilities below 20°C reflect low historical precedent for sharper cooling this early in autumn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 22?
23°C 40%
22°C 37%
21°C 31%
24°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
15%
19°C
20%
20°C
20%
21°C
31%
22°C
37%
23°C
40%
24°C
28%
25°C
25%
26°C
24%
27°C
23%
28°C or higher
19%
23°C 40%
22°C 37%
21°C 31%
24°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
31%
22°C
$0 Vol.
37%
23°C
$60 Vol.
40%
24°C
$60 Vol.
28%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
23%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models indicates a minimum temperature near 22–23°C on September 22 under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and moderate humidity around 60–80%. This positioning stems from stable post-summer subtropical high influence with minimal frontal activity or typhoon impacts, allowing typical nocturnal radiative cooling without extreme drops. Recent observations show consistent overnight lows in the low 20s°C amid gradual seasonal transition, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs, where slight variations in cloud cover or wind could nudge the official minimum between 22–24°C, while probabilities below 20°C reflect low historical precedent for sharper cooling this early in autumn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models indicates a minimum temperature near 22–23°C on September 22 under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and moderate humidity around 60–80%. This positioning stems from stable post-summer subtropical high influence with minimal frontal activity or typhoon impacts, allowing typical nocturnal radiative cooling without extreme drops. Recent observations show consistent overnight lows in the low 20s°C amid gradual seasonal transition, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs, where slight variations in cloud cover or wind could nudge the official minimum between 22–24°C, while probabilities below 20°C reflect low historical precedent for sharper cooling this early in autumn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and international models indicates a minimum temperature near 22–23°C on September 22 under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and moderate humidity around 60–80%. This positioning stems from stable post-summer subtropical high influence with minimal frontal activity or typhoon impacts, allowing typical nocturnal radiative cooling without extreme drops. Recent observations show consistent overnight lows in the low 20s°C amid gradual seasonal transition, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs, where slight variations in cloud cover or wind could nudge the official minimum between 22–24°C, while probabilities below 20°C reflect low historical precedent for sharper cooling this early in autumn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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