Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 likely falling between 23–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light easterly winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with September climatological normals of roughly 24–26°C overnight lows in the subtropical monsoon climate, where high humidity limits radiative cooling and keeps the diurnal range modest. The closely matched market probabilities around 25°C, 24°C, and lower bins reflect uncertainty in exact overnight minimums due to variable cloud cover and precipitation timing across ensemble runs, rather than any extreme cold or heat signal. Updated model outputs ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds as local observations clarify steering patterns and moisture levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
20°C or below 56%
30°C or higher 56%
22°C 39%
25°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
56%
21°C
13%
22°C
39%
23°C
22%
24°C
25%
25°C
28%
26°C
24%
27°C
22%
28°C
21%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
56%
20°C or below 56%
30°C or higher 56%
22°C 39%
25°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
56%
21°C
$10 Vol.
13%
22°C
$100 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
22%
28°C
$8 Vol.
21%
29°C
$10 Vol.
17%
30°C or higher
$10 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 likely falling between 23–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light easterly winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with September climatological normals of roughly 24–26°C overnight lows in the subtropical monsoon climate, where high humidity limits radiative cooling and keeps the diurnal range modest. The closely matched market probabilities around 25°C, 24°C, and lower bins reflect uncertainty in exact overnight minimums due to variable cloud cover and precipitation timing across ensemble runs, rather than any extreme cold or heat signal. Updated model outputs ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds as local observations clarify steering patterns and moisture levels.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$148End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 likely falling between 23–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light easterly winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with September climatological normals of roughly 24–26°C overnight lows in the subtropical monsoon climate, where high humidity limits radiative cooling and keeps the diurnal range modest. The closely matched market probabilities around 25°C, 24°C, and lower bins reflect uncertainty in exact overnight minimums due to variable cloud cover and precipitation timing across ensemble runs, rather than any extreme cold or heat signal. Updated model outputs ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds as local observations clarify steering patterns and moisture levels.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$148End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on September 15 likely falling between 23–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light easterly winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with September climatological normals of roughly 24–26°C overnight lows in the subtropical monsoon climate, where high humidity limits radiative cooling and keeps the diurnal range modest. The closely matched market probabilities around 25°C, 24°C, and lower bins reflect uncertainty in exact overnight minimums due to variable cloud cover and precipitation timing across ensemble runs, rather than any extreme cold or heat signal. Updated model outputs ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds as local observations clarify steering patterns and moisture levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions