Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting global models indicate an overnight low of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 20, supported by a strengthening Pacific high that sustains warm, humid air with limited nocturnal cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 48% for 25°C and 23.5% for 24°C, while 26°C trails at 17.5%. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Japan this summer, consistent with JMA outlooks, further anchor expectations near these thresholds rather than typical August normals around 23–24°C. Short-range forecast uncertainty from potential model shifts or localized cloud cover could influence final readings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?
25°C 48%
24°C 24%
26°C 18%
23°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
6%
24°C
24%
25°C
48%
26°C
18%
27°C
5%
28°C
3%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 48%
24°C 24%
26°C 18%
23°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
20°C or below
$9 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$40 Vol.
1%
22°C
$4 Vol.
3%
23°C
$9 Vol.
6%
24°C
$4 Vol.
24%
25°C
$91 Vol.
48%
26°C
$16 Vol.
18%
27°C
$51 Vol.
5%
28°C
$25 Vol.
3%
29°C
$263 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$454 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting global models indicate an overnight low of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 20, supported by a strengthening Pacific high that sustains warm, humid air with limited nocturnal cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 48% for 25°C and 23.5% for 24°C, while 26°C trails at 17.5%. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Japan this summer, consistent with JMA outlooks, further anchor expectations near these thresholds rather than typical August normals around 23–24°C. Short-range forecast uncertainty from potential model shifts or localized cloud cover could influence final readings before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$963End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting global models indicate an overnight low of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 20, supported by a strengthening Pacific high that sustains warm, humid air with limited nocturnal cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 48% for 25°C and 23.5% for 24°C, while 26°C trails at 17.5%. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Japan this summer, consistent with JMA outlooks, further anchor expectations near these thresholds rather than typical August normals around 23–24°C. Short-range forecast uncertainty from potential model shifts or localized cloud cover could influence final readings before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$963End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting global models indicate an overnight low of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 20, supported by a strengthening Pacific high that sustains warm, humid air with limited nocturnal cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 48% for 25°C and 23.5% for 24°C, while 26°C trails at 17.5%. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Japan this summer, consistent with JMA outlooks, further anchor expectations near these thresholds rather than typical August normals around 23–24°C. Short-range forecast uncertainty from potential model shifts or localized cloud cover could influence final readings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions