Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus and ensemble runs indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 19 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by typical mid-August humidity levels around 75–80%, moderate cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect that retains warmth through the night. These conditions differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes, as minor shifts in forecasted wind patterns, radiative cooling under clearer skies, or localized precipitation could tip the minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 24°C, with trader sentiment reflecting this baseline alongside uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?
25°C 40%
24°C 28%
23°C 14%
26°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
5%
22°C
6%
23°C
14%
24°C
28%
25°C
46%
26°C
9%
27°C
5%
28°C
7%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 40%
24°C 28%
23°C 14%
26°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
21°C
$10 Vol.
5%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
14%
24°C
$36 Vol.
28%
25°C
$21 Vol.
46%
26°C
$0 Vol.
9%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$10 Vol.
7%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus and ensemble runs indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 19 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by typical mid-August humidity levels around 75–80%, moderate cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect that retains warmth through the night. These conditions differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes, as minor shifts in forecasted wind patterns, radiative cooling under clearer skies, or localized precipitation could tip the minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 24°C, with trader sentiment reflecting this baseline alongside uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$102End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus and ensemble runs indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 19 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by typical mid-August humidity levels around 75–80%, moderate cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect that retains warmth through the night. These conditions differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes, as minor shifts in forecasted wind patterns, radiative cooling under clearer skies, or localized precipitation could tip the minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 24°C, with trader sentiment reflecting this baseline alongside uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$102End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus and ensemble runs indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 19 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by typical mid-August humidity levels around 75–80%, moderate cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect that retains warmth through the night. These conditions differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes, as minor shifts in forecasted wind patterns, radiative cooling under clearer skies, or localized precipitation could tip the minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 24°C, with trader sentiment reflecting this baseline alongside uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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