Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$47,224 Vol.
$47,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
1%
$47,224 Vol.
$47,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,504 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$23,720 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in the September 1 primary, defeating challenger Jason Poulos by roughly 72% to 28%. The district's partisan composition, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds typical of the state's congressional map, where all nine seats are held by Democrats. Forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan realignment could theoretically shift outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline fundamentals in comparable races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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