Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Iran’s new Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February strikes, has kept trader focus on his extended absence from verified public view. Security threats from foreign adversaries, reported injuries sustained in the conflict, and the regime’s initial preference for limited visibility have shaped the low implied probabilities for near-term appearances. Recent developments include limited video releases and official statements without in-person footage, alongside a possible July sighting that markets priced at low single-digit odds for resolution by month-end. Ongoing diplomatic engagements, internal regime dynamics, and any confirmed photographic or video evidence before key deadlines like December 31 remain the primary catalysts that could shift consensus on timelines.