Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over April 5 flight delays, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 4,500–7,000 as spring storm systems threaten major hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis per FAA air traffic advisories. Recent severe weather warnings for thunderstorms, hail, and possible tornadoes moving into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through April 4 have already snarled Easter weekend travel, echoing March's spikes exceeding 12,000 disruptions, yet forecasts lack precision on intensity or exact paths. Historical daily averages hover near 5,600 delays amid routine factors like tarmac waits and crew issues, keeping outcomes tight; separation could emerge from refined weather models, FAA ground stops, or actual storm impacts at high-volume airports like Atlanta or Chicago.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4,500-5,000 48%
5,000-5,500 48%
6,000-6,500 48%
6,500-7,000 48%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
<4,000
48%
4,000-4,500
48%
4,500-5,000
48%
5,000-5,500
48%
5,500-6,000
48%
6,000-6,500
48%
6,500-7,000
48%
>7,000
48%
4,500-5,000 48%
5,000-5,500 48%
6,000-6,500 48%
6,500-7,000 48%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
<4,000
$0 Vol.
48%
4,000-4,500
$0 Vol.
48%
4,500-5,000
$0 Vol.
48%
5,000-5,500
$0 Vol.
48%
5,500-6,000
$0 Vol.
48%
6,000-6,500
$0 Vol.
48%
6,500-7,000
$0 Vol.
48%
>7,000
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over April 5 flight delays, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 4,500–7,000 as spring storm systems threaten major hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis per FAA air traffic advisories. Recent severe weather warnings for thunderstorms, hail, and possible tornadoes moving into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through April 4 have already snarled Easter weekend travel, echoing March's spikes exceeding 12,000 disruptions, yet forecasts lack precision on intensity or exact paths. Historical daily averages hover near 5,600 delays amid routine factors like tarmac waits and crew issues, keeping outcomes tight; separation could emerge from refined weather models, FAA ground stops, or actual storm impacts at high-volume airports like Atlanta or Chicago.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over April 5 flight delays, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 4,500–7,000 as spring storm systems threaten major hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis per FAA air traffic advisories. Recent severe weather warnings for thunderstorms, hail, and possible tornadoes moving into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through April 4 have already snarled Easter weekend travel, echoing March's spikes exceeding 12,000 disruptions, yet forecasts lack precision on intensity or exact paths. Historical daily averages hover near 5,600 delays amid routine factors like tarmac waits and crew issues, keeping outcomes tight; separation could emerge from refined weather models, FAA ground stops, or actual storm impacts at high-volume airports like Atlanta or Chicago.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over April 5 flight delays, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 4,500–7,000 as spring storm systems threaten major hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis per FAA air traffic advisories. Recent severe weather warnings for thunderstorms, hail, and possible tornadoes moving into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through April 4 have already snarled Easter weekend travel, echoing March's spikes exceeding 12,000 disruptions, yet forecasts lack precision on intensity or exact paths. Historical daily averages hover near 5,600 delays amid routine factors like tarmac waits and crew issues, keeping outcomes tight; separation could emerge from refined weather models, FAA ground stops, or actual storm impacts at high-volume airports like Atlanta or Chicago.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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