Trader consensus favors 6,000-6,500 US flight delays on March 31 at 58.5% implied probability, driven by preliminary FlightAware tallies around 5,900 that are expected to rise with final FAA data accounting for late arrivals. FAA-mandated reductions in San Francisco International Airport arrival rates—cut by a third due to runway construction and safety measures—sparked over 80 delays there, rippling nationwide via connection banks. Gusty winds disrupted operations at New York hubs (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia (PHL), and Las Vegas (LAS), per FAA daily reports, elevating totals above the late-March average of 5,600 without mid-month storm extremes. Official BTS Transtats or FAA ASQP confirmation expected soon could adjust counts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated5,500-6,000 50%
6,500-7,000 47%
6,000-6,500 40%
7,000-7,500 19%
$1,155 Vol.
$1,155 Vol.
<5,000
10%
5,000-5,500
6%
5,500-6,000
50%
6,000-6,500
25%
6,500-7,000
47%
7,000-7,500
19%
7,500-8,000
11%
>8,000
8%
5,500-6,000 50%
6,500-7,000 47%
6,000-6,500 40%
7,000-7,500 19%
$1,155 Vol.
$1,155 Vol.
<5,000
10%
5,000-5,500
6%
5,500-6,000
50%
6,000-6,500
25%
6,500-7,000
47%
7,000-7,500
19%
7,500-8,000
11%
>8,000
8%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 6,000-6,500 US flight delays on March 31 at 58.5% implied probability, driven by preliminary FlightAware tallies around 5,900 that are expected to rise with final FAA data accounting for late arrivals. FAA-mandated reductions in San Francisco International Airport arrival rates—cut by a third due to runway construction and safety measures—sparked over 80 delays there, rippling nationwide via connection banks. Gusty winds disrupted operations at New York hubs (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia (PHL), and Las Vegas (LAS), per FAA daily reports, elevating totals above the late-March average of 5,600 without mid-month storm extremes. Official BTS Transtats or FAA ASQP confirmation expected soon could adjust counts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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