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Politics·Gov Shutdown

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Market icon
Politics·Gov Shutdown

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Mar 27

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Mar 30

Mar 27

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Mar 30

57% chance
Polymarket
NEW
57% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Ongoing partial Department of Homeland Security government shutdown has intensified TSA staffing shortages, with over 450 officers quitting recently and high callout rates amid unpaid furloughs, compounding spring break travel surges and FAA air traffic controller deficits. Recent severe storms triggered over 4,800 cancellations on March 16 alone, while FAA advisories flag high winds at New York and Philadelphia hubs plus thunderstorms near Chicago into late March. These disruptions elevated daily U.S. flight cancellations well above average throughout the month, leading traders to price a 56.5% implied probability for exceeding 500 on March 31 as weather risks and funding impasse persist absent congressional continuing resolution.

Ongoing partial Department of Homeland Security government shutdown has intensified TSA staffing shortages, with over 450 officers quitting recently and high callout rates amid unpaid furloughs, compounding spring break travel surges and FAA air traffic controller deficits. Recent severe storms triggered over 4,800 cancellations on March 16 alone, while FAA advisories flag high winds at New York and Philadelphia hubs plus thunderstorms near Chicago into late March. These disruptions elevated daily U.S. flight cancellations well above average throughout the month, leading traders to price a 56.5% implied probability for exceeding 500 on March 31 as weather risks and funding impasse persist absent congressional continuing resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Ongoing partial Department of Homeland Security government shutdown has intensified TSA staffing shortages, with over 450 officers quitting recently and high callout rates amid unpaid furloughs, compounding spring break travel surges and FAA air traffic controller deficits. Recent severe storms triggered over 4,800 cancellations on March 16 alone, while FAA advisories flag high winds at New York and Philadelphia hubs plus thunderstorms near Chicago into late March. These disruptions elevated daily U.S. flight cancellations well above average throughout the month, leading traders to price a 56.5% implied probability for exceeding 500 on March 31 as weather risks and funding impasse persist absent congressional continuing resolution.

Ongoing partial Department of Homeland Security government shutdown has intensified TSA staffing shortages, with over 450 officers quitting recently and high callout rates amid unpaid furloughs, compounding spring break travel surges and FAA air traffic controller deficits. Recent severe storms triggered over 4,800 cancellations on March 16 alone, while FAA advisories flag high winds at New York and Philadelphia hubs plus thunderstorms near Chicago into late March. These disruptions elevated daily U.S. flight cancellations well above average throughout the month, leading traders to price a 56.5% implied probability for exceeding 500 on March 31 as weather risks and funding impasse persist absent congressional continuing resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 56% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 56¢, the market collectively assigns a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is 56% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.