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Politics·Airport

Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?

Market icon
Politics·Airport

Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

3% chance
Polymarket

$879 Vol.

3% chance
Polymarket

$879 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Preliminary FlightAware data reports just 261 cancellations within, into, or out of the United States on March 27, fueling 98.4% trader consensus for "No" on exceeding 450 amid routine spring break operations. FAA's daily air traffic report flagged high winds potentially delaying flights at Northeast hubs like EWR, JFK, LGA, and PHL, but these spurred delays rather than mass ground stops or cancellations, unlike mid-March storms that canceled thousands across O'Hare, Atlanta, and Minneapolis. Ongoing TSA staffing strains from the partial DHS shutdown contributed to checkpoint backups but not airline-wide disruptions. Market resolves on the official "yesterday" figure at 12:00 PM ET today; only an extraordinary late data revision—such as unlogged international legs or mechanical failures surfacing post-midnight—could shift odds, though real-time tracking makes this highly improbable.

Preliminary FlightAware data reports just 261 cancellations within, into, or out of the United States on March 27, fueling 98.4% trader consensus for "No" on exceeding 450 amid routine spring break operations. FAA's daily air traffic report flagged high winds potentially delaying flights at Northeast hubs like EWR, JFK, LGA, and PHL, but these spurred delays rather than mass ground stops or cancellations, unlike mid-March storms that canceled thousands across O'Hare, Atlanta, and Minneapolis. Ongoing TSA staffing strains from the partial DHS shutdown contributed to checkpoint backups but not airline-wide disruptions. Market resolves on the official "yesterday" figure at 12:00 PM ET today; only an extraordinary late data revision—such as unlogged international legs or mechanical failures surfacing post-midnight—could shift odds, though real-time tracking makes this highly improbable.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Preliminary FlightAware data reports just 261 cancellations within, into, or out of the United States on March 27, fueling 98.4% trader consensus for "No" on exceeding 450 amid routine spring break operations. FAA's daily air traffic report flagged high winds potentially delaying flights at Northeast hubs like EWR, JFK, LGA, and PHL, but these spurred delays rather than mass ground stops or cancellations, unlike mid-March storms that canceled thousands across O'Hare, Atlanta, and Minneapolis. Ongoing TSA staffing strains from the partial DHS shutdown contributed to checkpoint backups but not airline-wide disruptions. Market resolves on the official "yesterday" figure at 12:00 PM ET today; only an extraordinary late data revision—such as unlogged international legs or mechanical failures surfacing post-midnight—could shift odds, though real-time tracking makes this highly improbable.

Preliminary FlightAware data reports just 261 cancellations within, into, or out of the United States on March 27, fueling 98.4% trader consensus for "No" on exceeding 450 amid routine spring break operations. FAA's daily air traffic report flagged high winds potentially delaying flights at Northeast hubs like EWR, JFK, LGA, and PHL, but these spurred delays rather than mass ground stops or cancellations, unlike mid-March storms that canceled thousands across O'Hare, Atlanta, and Minneapolis. Ongoing TSA staffing strains from the partial DHS shutdown contributed to checkpoint backups but not airline-wide disruptions. Market resolves on the official "yesterday" figure at 12:00 PM ET today; only an extraordinary late data revision—such as unlogged international legs or mechanical failures surfacing post-midnight—could shift odds, though real-time tracking makes this highly improbable.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.