Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 97.4% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required conditions materializing by the March 31, 2026, deadline: a "disrupted" severity event on the AWS Health Dashboard, alongside Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare status pages. Robust redundancies, global infrastructure, and dedicated incident response across these cloud and platform providers have maintained high uptime, with no clustered high-severity outages reported—AWS experienced regional me-central-1 disruptions in late March and degraded EC2/S3 availability on April 24, but Discord and Cloudflare logged only minor issues like invite glitches and localized WARP connectivity. Realistic risks include delayed reclassification of past incidents or a rare correlated cyberattack, though post-deadline stability reinforces the skin-in-the-game crowd's confidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,115 Vol.
$14,115 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$14,115 Vol.
$14,115 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 97.4% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required conditions materializing by the March 31, 2026, deadline: a "disrupted" severity event on the AWS Health Dashboard, alongside Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare status pages. Robust redundancies, global infrastructure, and dedicated incident response across these cloud and platform providers have maintained high uptime, with no clustered high-severity outages reported—AWS experienced regional me-central-1 disruptions in late March and degraded EC2/S3 availability on April 24, but Discord and Cloudflare logged only minor issues like invite glitches and localized WARP connectivity. Realistic risks include delayed reclassification of past incidents or a rare correlated cyberattack, though post-deadline stability reinforces the skin-in-the-game crowd's confidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$14,115End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 97.4% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required conditions materializing by the March 31, 2026, deadline: a "disrupted" severity event on the AWS Health Dashboard, alongside Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare status pages. Robust redundancies, global infrastructure, and dedicated incident response across these cloud and platform providers have maintained high uptime, with no clustered high-severity outages reported—AWS experienced regional me-central-1 disruptions in late March and degraded EC2/S3 availability on April 24, but Discord and Cloudflare logged only minor issues like invite glitches and localized WARP connectivity. Realistic risks include delayed reclassification of past incidents or a rare correlated cyberattack, though post-deadline stability reinforces the skin-in-the-game crowd's confidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$14,115End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 97.4% implied probability for "No," driven by the extreme unlikelihood of all three required conditions materializing by the March 31, 2026, deadline: a "disrupted" severity event on the AWS Health Dashboard, alongside Critical (red) incidents for both Discord and Cloudflare status pages. Robust redundancies, global infrastructure, and dedicated incident response across these cloud and platform providers have maintained high uptime, with no clustered high-severity outages reported—AWS experienced regional me-central-1 disruptions in late March and degraded EC2/S3 availability on April 24, but Discord and Cloudflare logged only minor issues like invite glitches and localized WARP connectivity. Realistic risks include delayed reclassification of past incidents or a rare correlated cyberattack, though post-deadline stability reinforces the skin-in-the-game crowd's confidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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