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Tech·Chatgpt

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

icon for OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Tech·Chatgpt

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

$28,866 Vol.

Jun 29, 2026
Polymarket

$28,866 Vol.

Polymarket

35%+

$0 Vol.

Yes

40%+

$0 Vol.

Yes

50%+

$28,866 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 Pro and related variants currently post 41-44% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam, the 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning mathematics, sciences, and specialized domains, placing them behind Claude Fable 5 at 53% and near Gemini 3.1 previews around 45%. With resolution in twelve days and no confirmed major model release or undisclosed optimization from OpenAI on the horizon, trader consensus assigns near-certainty to thresholds at or below 40% while viewing jumps above 50% as improbable absent sudden capability gains. Stable leaderboard trends, competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google DeepMind, and the benchmark’s resistance to rapid saturation reinforce expectations that existing frontier large language model performance will hold through June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Volume
$28,866
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 Pro and related variants currently post 41-44% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam, the 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning mathematics, sciences, and specialized domains, placing them behind Claude Fable 5 at 53% and near Gemini 3.1 previews around 45%. With resolution in twelve days and no confirmed major model release or undisclosed optimization from OpenAI on the horizon, trader consensus assigns near-certainty to thresholds at or below 40% while viewing jumps above 50% as improbable absent sudden capability gains. Stable leaderboard trends, competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google DeepMind, and the benchmark’s resistance to rapid saturation reinforce expectations that existing frontier large language model performance will hold through June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Volume
$28,866
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "35%+" at 100%, followed by "40%+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" has generated $28.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is "35%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40%+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.