Anthropic’s active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing, backed by its confidential S-1 filing in June and surging revenue that recently exceeded a $100 billion annualized run rate, drives the market’s 96 percent implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company’s advisors have shifted the target from October to allow presentation of full third-quarter results during the roadshow, with expectations of a roughly $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that an IPO will not occur in 2026, citing the need to address artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities as a private company, pushing any debut to 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to regulatory review or market conditions, OpenAI’s explicit deferral leaves few realistic paths for it to list first.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic
96% chance
$383,682 Vol.
$383,682 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
96% chance
$383,682 Vol.
$383,682 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing, backed by its confidential S-1 filing in June and surging revenue that recently exceeded a $100 billion annualized run rate, drives the market’s 96 percent implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company’s advisors have shifted the target from October to allow presentation of full third-quarter results during the roadshow, with expectations of a roughly $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that an IPO will not occur in 2026, citing the need to address artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities as a private company, pushing any debut to 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to regulatory review or market conditions, OpenAI’s explicit deferral leaves few realistic paths for it to list first.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$383,682End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing, backed by its confidential S-1 filing in June and surging revenue that recently exceeded a $100 billion annualized run rate, drives the market’s 96 percent implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company’s advisors have shifted the target from October to allow presentation of full third-quarter results during the roadshow, with expectations of a roughly $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that an IPO will not occur in 2026, citing the need to address artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities as a private company, pushing any debut to 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to regulatory review or market conditions, OpenAI’s explicit deferral leaves few realistic paths for it to list first.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$383,682End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing, backed by its confidential S-1 filing in June and surging revenue that recently exceeded a $100 billion annualized run rate, drives the market’s 96 percent implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company’s advisors have shifted the target from October to allow presentation of full third-quarter results during the roadshow, with expectations of a roughly $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that an IPO will not occur in 2026, citing the need to address artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities as a private company, pushing any debut to 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to regulatory review or market conditions, OpenAI’s explicit deferral leaves few realistic paths for it to list first.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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