Argentina’s planned citizenship-by-investment program, often described as a “golden passport” scheme tied to large donations or bond purchases, remains in the development phase without a confirmed launch or operational parameters as of September 2026. This keeps the implied probability of Peter Thiel receiving citizenship before December 31 at just 9 percent. Thiel has relocated temporarily to Buenos Aires, purchased property, and held meetings with President Javier Milei, yet official statements have denied any formal application or expedited offer while the scheme’s investment thresholds and approval timelines are still being finalized. Bureaucratic requirements, potential legislative delays, and the absence of demonstrated residency periods further anchor trader consensus around the No outcome. A last-minute executive decree or accelerated rollout of the framework could shift sentiment, though such moves would represent a departure from current verified developments.