Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arkansas’s Class II Senate seat. Arkansas’s consistent Republican voting patterns in federal races, combined with Cotton’s strong primary performance and established Senate record, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A July poll showed a narrow lead amid Shoffner’s campaign emphasis on rural issues, yet broader ratings classify the contest as solidly Republican. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle national partisan swings, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics matters, or turnout surges among independent voters that narrow the structural gap in this low-turnout midterm environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales de l'Arkansas
Vainqueur des élections sénatoriales de l'Arkansas
$16,232 Vol.
$16,232 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Républicain
94%
Démocrate
6%
$16,232 Vol.
$16,232 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Républicain
$12,081 Vol.
94%
Démocrate
$4,151 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arkansas’s Class II Senate seat. Arkansas’s consistent Republican voting patterns in federal races, combined with Cotton’s strong primary performance and established Senate record, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A July poll showed a narrow lead amid Shoffner’s campaign emphasis on rural issues, yet broader ratings classify the contest as solidly Republican. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle national partisan swings, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics matters, or turnout surges among independent voters that narrow the structural gap in this low-turnout midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$16,232Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arkansas’s Class II Senate seat. Arkansas’s consistent Republican voting patterns in federal races, combined with Cotton’s strong primary performance and established Senate record, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A July poll showed a narrow lead amid Shoffner’s campaign emphasis on rural issues, yet broader ratings classify the contest as solidly Republican. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle national partisan swings, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics matters, or turnout surges among independent voters that narrow the structural gap in this low-turnout midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$16,232Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arkansas’s Class II Senate seat. Arkansas’s consistent Republican voting patterns in federal races, combined with Cotton’s strong primary performance and established Senate record, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A July poll showed a narrow lead amid Shoffner’s campaign emphasis on rural issues, yet broader ratings classify the contest as solidly Republican. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle national partisan swings, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics matters, or turnout surges among independent voters that narrow the structural gap in this low-turnout midterm environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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