Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-21
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-21
$27,331 Vol.
$27,331 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Jim Costa (D)
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
7%
$27,331 Vol.
$27,331 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Jim Costa (D)
$15,163 Vol.
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
$12,168 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$27,331Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,331Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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