Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels through December 11 and eliminating any appropriations lapse on October 1. The Senate passed the measure 90-6 and the House cleared it 370-48, reflecting bipartisan consensus to avoid another shutdown amid recent extended funding gaps and ahead of November midterms. Traders price the “No” outcome at 98% because the legislation is already law well before the fiscal year-end, consistent with patterns of using short-term extensions to maintain agency operations. The only remaining variables involve later deadlines in December, not October 1.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels through December 11 and eliminating any appropriations lapse on October 1. The Senate passed the measure 90-6 and the House cleared it 370-48, reflecting bipartisan consensus to avoid another shutdown amid recent extended funding gaps and ahead of November midterms. Traders price the “No” outcome at 98% because the legislation is already law well before the fiscal year-end, consistent with patterns of using short-term extensions to maintain agency operations. The only remaining variables involve later deadlines in December, not October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,191Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels through December 11 and eliminating any appropriations lapse on October 1. The Senate passed the measure 90-6 and the House cleared it 370-48, reflecting bipartisan consensus to avoid another shutdown amid recent extended funding gaps and ahead of November midterms. Traders price the “No” outcome at 98% because the legislation is already law well before the fiscal year-end, consistent with patterns of using short-term extensions to maintain agency operations. The only remaining variables involve later deadlines in December, not October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070be91...Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels through December 11 and eliminating any appropriations lapse on October 1. The Senate passed the measure 90-6 and the House cleared it 370-48, reflecting bipartisan consensus to avoid another shutdown amid recent extended funding gaps and ahead of November midterms. Traders price the “No” outcome at 98% because the legislation is already law well before the fiscal year-end, consistent with patterns of using short-term extensions to maintain agency operations. The only remaining variables involve later deadlines in December, not October 1.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes