**Forecast consensus from authoritative sources places Ankara’s September 2 high near 30–31 °C under stable high-pressure conditions.** Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and multiple numerical models (including hourly outputs) project a sunny day with light north-northeasterly winds, minimal cloud cover, and daytime heating that peaks in the mid-afternoon. These conditions favor efficient solar insolation and limited boundary-layer mixing, supporting a maximum in the narrow 30–31 °C window. Recent model runs show little dispersion, with ensemble means clustering around 30 °C and occasional members reaching 31 °C; this tight spread explains why traders have priced the two outcomes so closely (47.5 % and 41.5 %). Historical early-September climatology for Ankara (typical highs ~27–29 °C) provides context, but the current synoptic pattern—persistent subsidence and dry air—has elevated the expected peak by a couple of degrees. Key resolution variables remain the precise timing of the daily maximum and any last-minute adjustments to boundary-layer temperature or wind speed in the final 24–48 h before the observation period closes. Updated short-range guidance from the National Meteorological Service or rapid-update models will be the primary drivers of any late shifts in implied probability.