Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Beijing's highest temperature on March 25 will cluster tightly around 24-26°C, driving trader sentiment with near-even odds for these outcomes amid a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm air advection. This setup contrasts with March's typical high of 12-15°C, as recent observations show daytime peaks already exceeding 20°C under clear skies and light winds, boosting urban heat island effects. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—partial overcast favoring 24°C, sunnier conditions pushing toward 26°C—while low probabilities for 27°C+ reflect model ceilings capping at 26.5°C on average; watch CMA's 00z update for potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
24°C 26%
25°C 26%
27°C 18%
28°C 17%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
12%
21°C
14%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
23%
27°C
18%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
13%
24°C 26%
25°C 26%
27°C 18%
28°C 17%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
12%
21°C
14%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
23%
27°C
18%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Beijing's highest temperature on March 25 will cluster tightly around 24-26°C, driving trader sentiment with near-even odds for these outcomes amid a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm air advection. This setup contrasts with March's typical high of 12-15°C, as recent observations show daytime peaks already exceeding 20°C under clear skies and light winds, boosting urban heat island effects. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—partial overcast favoring 24°C, sunnier conditions pushing toward 26°C—while low probabilities for 27°C+ reflect model ceilings capping at 26.5°C on average; watch CMA's 00z update for potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes