Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 13 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 13 septembre ?
32°C 60%
33°C 32%
31°C 8.5%
30°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
13 sept. 2026
26°C ou moins
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
9%
32°C
60%
33°C
32%
34°C
5%
35°C
6%
36°C ou plus
1%
32°C 60%
33°C 32%
31°C 8.5%
30°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
13 sept. 2026
26°C ou moins
$6 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C
$0 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$101 Vol.
9%
32°C
$397 Vol.
60%
33°C
$32 Vol.
32%
34°C
$5 Vol.
5%
35°C
$5 Vol.
6%
36°C ou plus
$6 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$552Date de fin
13 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$552Date de fin
13 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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