Trader consensus in this market centers on a 27°C daily maximum for Mexico City on August 4, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance that places the peak near or modestly above the long-term August average of 24°C. High-elevation conditions around 2,240 meters, combined with typical early rainy-season patterns of morning clear skies and afternoon convection, support this range, with recent model runs showing limited deviation from seasonal norms amid light winds and moderate humidity. Leading probabilities for 26–28°C outcomes capture uncertainty in exact peak timing and station measurements, while lower odds on extremes align with historical rarity of outliers exceeding 29°C or falling below 25°C during this period. Updated numerical weather prediction data and official monitoring from regional meteorological services will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Mexico le 4 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Mexico le 4 août ?
27°C 45%
26°C 25%
28°C 23%
25°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
20°C ou moins
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
25%
27°C
45%
28°C
23%
29°C
3%
30°C ou plus
1%
27°C 45%
26°C 25%
28°C 23%
25°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
20°C ou moins
$185 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$92 Vol.
1%
24°C
$166 Vol.
2%
25°C
$198 Vol.
6%
26°C
$327 Vol.
25%
27°C
$230 Vol.
45%
28°C
$339 Vol.
23%
29°C
$123 Vol.
3%
30°C ou plus
$48 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in this market centers on a 27°C daily maximum for Mexico City on August 4, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance that places the peak near or modestly above the long-term August average of 24°C. High-elevation conditions around 2,240 meters, combined with typical early rainy-season patterns of morning clear skies and afternoon convection, support this range, with recent model runs showing limited deviation from seasonal norms amid light winds and moderate humidity. Leading probabilities for 26–28°C outcomes capture uncertainty in exact peak timing and station measurements, while lower odds on extremes align with historical rarity of outliers exceeding 29°C or falling below 25°C during this period. Updated numerical weather prediction data and official monitoring from regional meteorological services will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$2,099Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in this market centers on a 27°C daily maximum for Mexico City on August 4, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance that places the peak near or modestly above the long-term August average of 24°C. High-elevation conditions around 2,240 meters, combined with typical early rainy-season patterns of morning clear skies and afternoon convection, support this range, with recent model runs showing limited deviation from seasonal norms amid light winds and moderate humidity. Leading probabilities for 26–28°C outcomes capture uncertainty in exact peak timing and station measurements, while lower odds on extremes align with historical rarity of outliers exceeding 29°C or falling below 25°C during this period. Updated numerical weather prediction data and official monitoring from regional meteorological services will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,099Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in this market centers on a 27°C daily maximum for Mexico City on August 4, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance that places the peak near or modestly above the long-term August average of 24°C. High-elevation conditions around 2,240 meters, combined with typical early rainy-season patterns of morning clear skies and afternoon convection, support this range, with recent model runs showing limited deviation from seasonal norms amid light winds and moderate humidity. Leading probabilities for 26–28°C outcomes capture uncertainty in exact peak timing and station measurements, while lower odds on extremes align with historical rarity of outliers exceeding 29°C or falling below 25°C during this period. Updated numerical weather prediction data and official monitoring from regional meteorological services will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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