Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and Italian meteorological services indicate a peak temperature near 36–37°C in Milan on August 5, driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm air into the Po Valley under mostly clear skies and light winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating. This aligns with ongoing heatwave conditions across northern Italy, where recent observations have already reached the mid-30s Celsius amid above-average insolation and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to minor uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any weak frontal passage, supporting the market’s emphasis on 36°C while leaving room for 35°C or 37°C outcomes depending on final model runs and station measurements at sites such as Milan Linate.