Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, position the most likely daily maximum for Qingdao on August 17 near 32–33 °C, driving the clustered market-implied odds. Coastal marine influence and expected afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers are key moderating factors that limit extreme heating, while weak southerly flow and residual summer humidity keep values above seasonal norms around 29–30 °C. Short-term model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, explaining why 31 °C and 34 °C remain competitive alternatives. Updated 48-hour guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds and potentially shift trader positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Qingdao le 17 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Qingdao le 17 août ?
33°C 36%
32°C 33%
34°C 17%
31°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
28 °C ou moins
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
11%
31°C
12%
32°C
33%
33°C
36%
34°C
17%
35°C
5%
36°C
5%
37°C
9%
38°C ou plus
<1%
33°C 36%
32°C 33%
34°C 17%
31°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
28 °C ou moins
$109 Vol.
1%
29°C
$17 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$45 Vol.
11%
31°C
$45 Vol.
12%
32°C
$0 Vol.
33%
33°C
$396 Vol.
36%
34°C
$6 Vol.
17%
35°C
$20 Vol.
5%
36°C
$16 Vol.
5%
37°C
$46 Vol.
9%
38°C ou plus
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, position the most likely daily maximum for Qingdao on August 17 near 32–33 °C, driving the clustered market-implied odds. Coastal marine influence and expected afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers are key moderating factors that limit extreme heating, while weak southerly flow and residual summer humidity keep values above seasonal norms around 29–30 °C. Short-term model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, explaining why 31 °C and 34 °C remain competitive alternatives. Updated 48-hour guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds and potentially shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 15, 2026, 4:08 PM ET
Volume
$721Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 4:08 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, position the most likely daily maximum for Qingdao on August 17 near 32–33 °C, driving the clustered market-implied odds. Coastal marine influence and expected afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers are key moderating factors that limit extreme heating, while weak southerly flow and residual summer humidity keep values above seasonal norms around 29–30 °C. Short-term model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, explaining why 31 °C and 34 °C remain competitive alternatives. Updated 48-hour guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds and potentially shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$721Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 4:08 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, position the most likely daily maximum for Qingdao on August 17 near 32–33 °C, driving the clustered market-implied odds. Coastal marine influence and expected afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers are key moderating factors that limit extreme heating, while weak southerly flow and residual summer humidity keep values above seasonal norms around 29–30 °C. Short-term model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, explaining why 31 °C and 34 °C remain competitive alternatives. Updated 48-hour guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds and potentially shift trader positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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