The Iowa 1st congressional district race features incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, with both having secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 72.5% amid broader 2026 midterm dynamics, where markets assign high probability to Democratic House gains nationally in a cycle featuring a Republican president and narrow prior margins in this district. Bohannan, a former state representative who closed to within 0.2 points in 2024, benefits from typical opposition-party advantages in midterms, while an independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty. Cook Political Report continues to rate the seat a toss-up, underscoring sensitivity to turnout, economic messaging on costs and tariffs, and any late shifts in national conditions before the November 3 election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
73%
Parti républicain
28%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$2,597 Vol.
73%
Parti républicain
$2,390 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Iowa 1st congressional district race features incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, with both having secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 72.5% amid broader 2026 midterm dynamics, where markets assign high probability to Democratic House gains nationally in a cycle featuring a Republican president and narrow prior margins in this district. Bohannan, a former state representative who closed to within 0.2 points in 2024, benefits from typical opposition-party advantages in midterms, while an independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty. Cook Political Report continues to rate the seat a toss-up, underscoring sensitivity to turnout, economic messaging on costs and tariffs, and any late shifts in national conditions before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,987Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Iowa 1st congressional district race features incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, with both having secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 72.5% amid broader 2026 midterm dynamics, where markets assign high probability to Democratic House gains nationally in a cycle featuring a Republican president and narrow prior margins in this district. Bohannan, a former state representative who closed to within 0.2 points in 2024, benefits from typical opposition-party advantages in midterms, while an independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty. Cook Political Report continues to rate the seat a toss-up, underscoring sensitivity to turnout, economic messaging on costs and tariffs, and any late shifts in national conditions before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,987Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Iowa 1st congressional district race features incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, with both having secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 72.5% amid broader 2026 midterm dynamics, where markets assign high probability to Democratic House gains nationally in a cycle featuring a Republican president and narrow prior margins in this district. Bohannan, a former state representative who closed to within 0.2 points in 2024, benefits from typical opposition-party advantages in midterms, while an independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty. Cook Political Report continues to rate the seat a toss-up, underscoring sensitivity to turnout, economic messaging on costs and tariffs, and any late shifts in national conditions before the November 3 election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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