Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a moderating air mass over the Northeast, with New York City minimum temperatures most likely falling in the low-to-mid 60s°F on September 21. Key variables include the strength and timing of any weak frontal passage, overnight cloud cover that could limit radiational cooling, and light wind regimes favoring slightly lower readings. Historical September climatology places average overnight lows near 60°F, providing context for the tight clustering around 60–65°F outcomes. Model spread remains modest but sufficient to sustain uncertainty between the leading 62–63°F and 64–65°F bins, with resolution depending on official observations at the designated station. Updated model runs tonight will further refine the expected minimum.