Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble model runs point to persistently warm overnight conditions across Paris on August 9, with minimum temperatures most likely settling between 16–18 °C. A lingering warm airmass, reduced nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and light winds are limiting the usual August drop to the mid-teens. Historical climatology shows average lows near 15 °C, yet current anomalies from an early-month heat episode have elevated baseline values. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 17 °C and 18 °C, while cooler outcomes would require stronger clear-sky cooling or a sharper frontal passage not currently favored in short-range guidance. Updated high-resolution model output and official minimum observations will refine these probabilities in the final 48 hours.