**Latest high-resolution model guidance, including GFS and regional European runs, points to clear overnight skies and light winds favoring strong radiative cooling, supporting the market's 40% implied probability on a 16°C minimum for Paris on September 15.** Traders appear to weigh ensemble spreads showing lows clustered between 15–18°C, with the 34.5% odds on 17°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, yet the current warm airmass and high pressure keep values well above climatology. Updated model runs from Météo-France and ECMWF before dawn will likely refine the exact threshold, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind could tip resolution between the two leading outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus basse à Paris le 15 septembre ?
Température la plus basse à Paris le 15 septembre ?
16°C 40%
17°C 34%
18°C 14%
15°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
10%
16°C
40%
17°C
34%
18°C
14%
19°C
6%
20°C
2%
21°C ou plus
1%
16°C 40%
17°C 34%
18°C 14%
15°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
$10 Vol.
2%
12°C
$10 Vol.
3%
13°C
$90 Vol.
2%
14°C
$106 Vol.
4%
15°C
$116 Vol.
10%
16°C
$316 Vol.
40%
17°C
$370 Vol.
34%
18°C
$242 Vol.
14%
19°C
$101 Vol.
6%
20°C
$106 Vol.
2%
21°C ou plus
$69 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest high-resolution model guidance, including GFS and regional European runs, points to clear overnight skies and light winds favoring strong radiative cooling, supporting the market's 40% implied probability on a 16°C minimum for Paris on September 15.**
Traders appear to weigh ensemble spreads showing lows clustered between 15–18°C, with the 34.5% odds on 17°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, yet the current warm airmass and high pressure keep values well above climatology. Updated model runs from Météo-France and ECMWF before dawn will likely refine the exact threshold, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind could tip resolution between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,535Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest high-resolution model guidance, including GFS and regional European runs, points to clear overnight skies and light winds favoring strong radiative cooling, supporting the market's 40% implied probability on a 16°C minimum for Paris on September 15.**
Traders appear to weigh ensemble spreads showing lows clustered between 15–18°C, with the 34.5% odds on 17°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, yet the current warm airmass and high pressure keep values well above climatology. Updated model runs from Météo-France and ECMWF before dawn will likely refine the exact threshold, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind could tip resolution between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,535Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Latest high-resolution model guidance, including GFS and regional European runs, points to clear overnight skies and light winds favoring strong radiative cooling, supporting the market's 40% implied probability on a 16°C minimum for Paris on September 15.** Traders appear to weigh ensemble spreads showing lows clustered between 15–18°C, with the 34.5% odds on 17°C reflecting minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Historical September averages near 11.6°C provide context, yet the current warm airmass and high pressure keep values well above climatology. Updated model runs from Météo-France and ECMWF before dawn will likely refine the exact threshold, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind could tip resolution between the two leading outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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