Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shanghai le 18 juillet ?
La température la plus basse à Shanghai le 18 juillet ?
24°C 100.0%
23°C ou moins <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Vol.
$92,911 Vol.
18 juil. 2026
23°C ou moins
Non
24°C
Oui
25°C
Non
26°C
Non
27°C
Non
28°C
Non
29°C
Non
30°C
Non
31°C
Non
32°C
Non
33°C ou plus
Non
24°C 100.0%
23°C ou moins <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Vol.
$92,911 Vol.
18 juil. 2026
23°C ou moins
$5,158 Vol.
Non
24°C
$5,202 Vol.
Oui
25°C
$20,915 Vol.
Non
26°C
$23,410 Vol.
Non
27°C
$4,775 Vol.
Non
28°C
$12,798 Vol.
Non
29°C
$6,126 Vol.
Non
30°C
$5,940 Vol.
Non
31°C
$7,394 Vol.
Non
32°C
$726 Vol.
Non
33°C ou plus
$468 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$92,911Date de fin
18 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$92,911Date de fin
18 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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